The Singularity is Near

Originally sent May 2007

Dear Boodles.

You seem to be reading voraciously these days, as am I, and enjoying every second of it. Truly, such a healthy escape from the meaningless drudge of everyday life. Right now I have taken another tack in my reading and am devouring a book called “The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil, a computer/ engineering genius and MIT professor, revered the world over for his highly accurate proclamations about advances in computer technology, and how the human race, as we know it, will be profoundly

altered.

Ray Kurzweil

I’m a big fan of his and have read his other works “The Age of Intelligent Machines” and “The Age of Spiritual Machines”. I would not say that he makes “predictions”, that’s too simple. He is on the forefront of developing many of these technologies, so based on what he knows as fact, and what he has stated in the past – all of which have come to be, his writing and personal appearances are watched and read closely by futurists the world over. His primary theory is what he describes as the “law of accelerating returns”, simply meaning that advances in technology are developing exponentially toward a zero point.

In his words, “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.”

The zero point being when computers are able to do two things, 1. Process reason and 2. Function at the capacity of the human brain, only one billion times faster. This is know in the world of artificial intelligence as “The Singularity”. That time is very near. This has many implications, and like Einstein, he stresses all of the positive aspects of what this will mean for humans including amazing advances in medical technology,

Fabricated DNA

Nanobots working at the  cellular level

doubling or more of life expectancy by 2030,

eradication of world hunger, disease and infant mortality,

deep space exploration and colonization,

earth and water preservation and much more.

And believe it or not, most of this will be commonplace by 2050, only 40 years from now. Of course, there is the other side of the coin which is at times too horrifying to read, but which he describes at length. I remember 4 years ago, while reading his last book, “The Age of Spiritual Machines” he stated that the US military, using nano technology, was developing drones that are the size of small flying insects and had enough explosive power to level a building.

Deadly insect drones made using nanotechnology

Two months ago, in the New York Times, the Israeli army in collaboration with the Pentagon announced that they were test flying, for immediate use, laser tracking drones that are the size of a common house fly!

Horrifying.